The KBO season is entering its home stretch as teams enter their final 30 games with seven teams (sorry Samsung) jockeying for five playoff spots. A lot can change in 30ish games, but the first three seeds seem secure (NC, LG, Kiwoom) and you’ve got Doosan, KT, Kia, and Lotte fighting for the fourth and fifth seeds.
But the playoffs aren’t the only thing that is approaching. As the season ends, it becomes time to start evaluating KBO players who may be posted in the winter by their teams to make the transition to MLB in the States. One such player, who will also play a pivotal role in his team’s playoff hope is Kia LHP, Yang Hyun-jong. Yang was posted back in 2014, but the Kia Tigers rejected the highest-bid, keeping him in the KBO.
Yang, at 32 years old, is in his 14th season in the KBO, all with the Kia Tigers after being drafted with the first overall pick back in the 2007 draft. Yang was phenomenal in 2019, posting a 2.29 ERA and 2.59 FIP over the course of 184.2 IP and striking out 22.3% of hitters while walking just 4.5%, for a 17.8% K-BB% that ranked third in the KBO. His 2019 actually bore extreme similarities to the seasons that Kwang Hyun-kim and Josh Lindblom had, who now pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers respectively.
Kwang signed a 2-year, $8M deal with the Cardinals, and Lindblom signed a $3-year, $9.13M deal with the Brewers over the offseason. Kwang has been very good for the Cardinals in 21.2 IP, posting a 0.83 ERA and 3.59 FIP; Lindblom has struggled a little bit more, with a 6.06 ERA and 4.65 FIP, but does have a 29% K%.
Unfortunately, Yang has struggled more in 2020, posting a dreadful 4.82 ERA and a decent 4.06 FIP, with a 22.1% K% (third in the KBO). The biggest changes from 2019 to 2020 look to be a BB% that nearly doubled, from 4.5% in 2019 up to 8.3% in 2020, as well as an HR/9 that jumped from a career-low of 0.29 in 2019 up to 0.87 in 2020, which is far more in line with his HR/9 marks over previous seasons.
He had a rough start to the season but has settled in since late-July and been reliable for six solid innings every time out. I’ve seen Yang Hyun-jong pitch a couple of times this season, on 8/11 vs Doosan (6 IP, 1 ER, 8Ks) and on 9/10 vs Doosan (5 IP, 3 ER, 4Ks) and I think I’ve got a pretty good idea of the pitcher that he is. Yang works on the edges of the zone a lot, with a Zone% of just 39%, a bottom-six mark in the KBO among pitchers with 195+ pitches.
Working on the corners as he does can be a risky endeavor; among that same cohort of pitchers, Yang has the fifth-highest Called Strike% (CS%) at 19%, but on the flip side and has only allowed a hard contact% of 23%, which is better than average, but he walked four batters against Doosan on September 10th. Next, we’ll dig into each of his pitches and how he uses them.
Yang throws 4 different pitches, but with his curveball at just a 5% usage rate and the stark LHH/RHH usage splits on his slider and changeup, he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher. He throws his 4-seam fastball around 90 mph and about 50% of the time, against both LHH and RHH, working away from LHH and in the zone against RHH. His 4-seam performs adequately, going for a called strike 15% of the time, but does get hit hard, allowing some extra-base hits and fly outs.
His slider comes next, with an average velocity of 81 mph and a usage% of 29% that is almost exclusively against left-handed hitters. Over the 56 times that he’s thrown his slider, it has a 39% whiff%, a top 10 individual pitch type mark, and a CS% of 30%. Against LHH, he’ll throw it inside for called strikes and then can throw it again, this time sweeping down and away for a whiff. I think it’s his best pitch and could definitely play well against MLB lefties.
Yang’s changeup is the big question mark for and the pitch that his MLB hopes rest on. He’s thrown it 16% of the time when I’ve watched him, with 91% of those coming against right-handed hitters, averaging around 82 mph. I need a few more starts from Yang to be sure on these usage numbers though; as stated earlier, both his starts have come against Doosan and 65% of Doosan’s at-bats this season have been left-handed hitters, which may have skewed Yang’s usage numbers a little bit.
Yang’s changeup is the question mark because it has been good and it has been useless and, frankly, I haven’t seen it enough to make a solid evaluation on it. Overall, the best thing about his changeup is his groundout% of 86%, but in his 9/10 start against Doosan, he got 3 whiffs on it, locating down and away from RHH. Against Doosan the first time, it didn’t really do much beyond a few groundouts.
With a below average MLB fastball, Yang would need his changeup to be well-above-average to be successful against righties in MLB in order to induce a lot of groundballs and weak contact. Kwang Hyun-kim has been able to do that, with a measly 27% hard hit% in MLB despite a K% of just 13.3%.
Kwang’s repertoire bears significant similarities to Yang’s; both are LHPs with a ~ 90 mph 4-seamer, sliders around 81-82 mph, and changeups around 80-82 that they throw against righties. Their batted balls profiles, albeit in different leagues and small sample sizes, also share similarities, with Kwang sporting a GB% of 44% and Yang’s GB% of 42%.
Kwang Hyun-kim is the template for Yang Hyun-jong to succeed in MLB by inducing a lot of groundballs and weak contact. However, I need to see more from Yang, especially a better changeup, in order to feel comfortable projecting him to be average or better as an MLB pitcher.
*Stats from the KBO Wizard, myKBO.com, FanGraphs, and Baseball Savant*